When Sheriff Oborevwori, defected from the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, in 2025, it signaled more than a regular political shift. The move, which involved several key stakeholders within the state, followed an ongoing pattern of realignments within Nigeria’s opposition outfit. By realignments, this writer refers to the shifting alliances and defections, as political leaders reposition themselves for influence and electoral advantage, ahead of the 2027 round of elections.

On the surface, Nigeria operates a multi-party system consisting of several registered political parties that have shaped its democracy. The ruling All Progressives Congress currently dominates the country’s political space, and there are key opposition parties like the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and eighteen (18) others.

Political opposition is a key aspect of democracy, restraining those in power and seeking to extend available rights. According to Seymour Martin Lipset, “over time, in both new and revived democracies, conflict between the governing and opposition parties helps establish democratic norms and rules.”

However, in Nigeria, the structure and effectiveness of opposition parties continue to deteriorate day-by-day. Recent political developments highlight a pattern of fluid party affiliations where politicians move from party to party, blurring the ideological lines that should separate political tendencies. While this is common with our politics, the recent trend is troubling, too fast-paced, and sinister in nature.

Opposition leaders are falling over themselves to join the ruling APC; Governors, lawmakers, and key party figures, who the people expect to uphold opposition parties are switching parties. The spate of defections can easily be linked to hustle for access to federal power, resources, and political influence.

The underbelly of the recent spate of defections however, are developments within opposition parties; most of the strongest opposition parties are in one crisis or another, especially crisis caused by the selfish tendencies of the average Nigerian leader.

The events that led up to the People’s Democratic Party’s National convention, for example, exposed underlying divisions within the party. At its National Executive Committee, NEC, meeting, party leaders made a move targeted at promoting unity by reaffirming a zoning formula for national elective positions.

However, the party was unable to fairly implement the agreed zoning arrangements, leading to unfair apportionment of leadership positions. Failure to manage complications arising from the National convention have led to the invalidation of the entire convention by the Courts.

Similarly, the African Democratic Congress is facing its own internal challenges, coming into focus at a time when the party had started gaining traction in coalition discussions. The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, suspended recognition of the David Mark-led leadership of the party after a Court of Appeal decision.

While the party has rejected INEC’s decision, accusing the commission of misinterpreting court directives and accusing the ruling APC of sponsoring its internal crisis, the details of the crisis reveal weak internal conflict resolution mechanisms that may ultimately become the party’s undoing.

The New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, is not spared. Recently, the 2023 Presidential candidate of the Party and former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, dumped the party and joined the African Democratic Congress, ADC. The only Governor that the party had, the Governor of Kano State, had dumped the party earlier.

What is noteworthy is that as opposition parties seem to be crumbling, the ruling APC has been receiving deserters from those opposition parties in droves.

This eventuality is fueling speculations that the All Progressives Congress, and President Bola Tinubu, are indeed sponsoring crisis in the opposition parties to pave the way for the President’s re-election.

Given that it is easy to believe that the direct beneficiary of the crisis in opposition parties may indeed be the sponsor of the crisis, opposition leaders are not to be given a free pass. Every crisis in any of the parties have strong members of the party at the base of all the disagreements that set their parties on fire.

Where sponsors of crisis find willing accomplices in the political parties that they target for disruption, more attention must be paid to the moral uprightness and ideological sincerity of the willing accomplices, than the disruptive tendencies of the sponsor. Where there are no accomplices, sponsors of crisis easily fail.

Therefore, the question of the survival of the opposition is hinged on two factors – the willingness of a powerful ruling party to allow for fair contest, and the commitment of opposition leaders to ethical politics.

Where there is a permanent handshake between strong members of the ruling party who wants to win at all costs, and corrupt members of the opposition who are willing to eat at all costs, then the survival of the opposition remains a mirage.